Arthur D. Little has released its latest Future of Automotive Mobility study for 2024, providing fresh insights into the trends shaping the global automotive market. The study, which involved primary research with over 16,000 consumers across 25 countries, reveals that the much-anticipated future of connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE) mobility is not materialising as swiftly as expected. The findings suggest that while progress has been made, the automotive world is far from fully realising a CASE-dominated landscape.
The report highlights that consumer demand for connected vehicles is increasing, but concerns around safety mean that people prefer assisted driving technologies over fully autonomous systems. Additionally, despite initial projections, shared mobility is not gaining significant traction, with more individuals continuing to favour car ownership. Electric mobility, meanwhile, is accelerating, although many consumers prefer hybrid vehicles over fully battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).
One of the report’s most striking findings is the continued interest in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Globally, 44% of ICE drivers still plan to purchase another ICE-powered vehicle, with this figure rising to 65% in the US, where consumers remain hesitant about transitioning to BEVs.
The study highlights a growing divide between mature automotive markets such as North America, Europe, and North Asia, and emerging markets like China, India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. While the former are nearing peak motorisation and are generally less open to new technologies, the latter are embracing car ownership and innovation with enthusiasm. However, even within these regions, adoption of electric vehicles varies, with China leading globally in EV uptake, while other growing markets remain slower to embrace electrification.
Richard Parkin, Partner at Arthur D. Little’s Automotive and Growth Practices, commented on the findings: “The notion that the future of mobility is moving straightforwardly toward connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE) solutions is proving increasingly unrealistic. Both producers and consumers are reassessing the costs and benefits. We’re also seeing significant divergence between markets – mature regions like Europe and the US are at peak motorisation, while dynamic but price-sensitive markets in Asia and the Middle East are at different stages of development. For automotive manufacturers, success will depend on navigating these complexities – convincing drivers to switch to EVs, addressing new disruptors like Chinese EV manufacturers, and dealing with the growing impact of digitalisation.”
The study identifies five key areas shaping future mobility: car ownership patterns, adoption of new mobility services, autonomous driving, alternative drivetrains (including electric vehicles), and the influence of digital tools on sales.
Findings indicate that despite the rise of urban de-motorisation, car ownership is still growing globally. Less than 50% of consumers have used new mobility services such as ridesharing, and trust in autonomous driving remains low, with two-thirds of consumers citing safety concerns as a major issue. Hybrid vehicles are gaining popularity, with 34% of global consumers expecting their next vehicle to be a hybrid, ahead of fully electric options. Additionally, while digital sales models are expanding, the traditional dealership model remains critical, with 77% of consumers valuing in-person consultation when purchasing a vehicle.
For more details, the full study can be accessed on Arthur D. Little’s website.